A Look Ahead at the 2026 Property Market (and What it Means for Swindon)

As local Swindon and Wiltshire residents, we can think about events like the ‘Could Be Real Festival’ back in May, the ‘Old Town Arts Festival’ in June and the Wanborough Show in August.

We’ve also seen a number of new business openings; amongst other things, we have had a new Popeyes – much to the excitement of many of us!

But more than that, we’ve got real job creation happening in Swindon. A £1 million Dacia showroom opened here in August; a new 40,000 sq ft drone factory is due to open on the old Honda site next year, creating a thousand jobs in the town; a new 16,000 sq ft Oak & More showroom opening on Boxing Day!

It all feels very positive for people in this town and the surrounding area.

As estate agents in Swindon though… well, somehow thoughts about the year we’ve had don’t always seem quite as chipper.

It has been a slog. And a half.

Here at The House Group our Members have helped hundreds of people move home this year – and as a Group, it has been another year of growth, with our best numbers so far, new Members coming on board and opening our new hub office in Old Town.

None of that means that it has not been fraught and stressful, full of effort and at times downright difficult.

But we’ve got there.

And, having got there, we can feel momentum building again. Many experts expect 2026 to be a year of renewed – if measured – confidence for buyers, sellers, landlords and tenants.

With the Renters’ Rights Act now on the statute book after months of back and forth, we have clarity in the rental sector at last.

And of course, we have also now had what might be the moment that will shape the market in the early part of the year in 2026.

The Bank of England has voted to reduce the Bank of England base rate to 3.75%. The decision came after inflation fell to 3.2% from 3.6%, having dropped from 3.8% the previous month.

Rising unemployment, slowing wage growth and a drop in GDP had already led many – including us – to comment that a cut was likely, but this fall in inflation, being even greater than expected, meant it felt guaranteed.

When we combine this base rate reduction with the fact that the Budget brought neither shocks nor sweeteners, immediately relieving that pent-up market demand that had built up since the summer, the consensus amongst analysts is that we should expect steady price growth and stronger activity next year, with a more predictable backdrop over the next four.

Starting… now! 

Looking back at 2025

The first half of 2025 feels like an almost distant memory.

It was defined by high levels of activity, as people rushed to beat the stamp duty holiday, as well as tempered by caution as higher borrowing costs, sticky inflation and political uncertainty weighed on confidence and transaction volumes as we crept into the summer.

The second half of the year has largely been defined by uncertainty – and that, realistically, was down to the Autumn Budget – or, rather, the speculation that preceded it.

Many movers chose to sit tight until they could see how tax and housing measures would land – driven by leaks which fuelled speculation, particularly around stamp duty reform, capital gains tax and a possible wealth tax to be levied on properties worth over £500,000.

Indicators such as buyer enquiries and agreed sales turned negative as the autumn market, which normally springs to life and corrects the slowness of the summer period, failed to show up. This was particularly the case in London and higher-value areas like the South East in general – areas that would be most exposed to new fiscal measures on property and rental income. Here in Swindon, and the South West of England in general, activity has fared a little better and prices stabilised sooner – although show a slight drop over 12 months.

We head out of the year with average property prices in Swindon at £257,000, 1.6% lower than at the same point last year – according to the Office for National Statistics.

However, whilst prices may have fallen a little, there has been no drop in underlying demand. Transaction numbers are in fact up on 2024 – and indeed up on every year since 2017, other than 2021, which saw numbers boosted due to Covid lockdowns closing the market down during 2020.

Chronic undersupply of homes, relatively strong labour market conditions and pent-up demand mean that many households have simply delayed their next move rather than cancelled it altogether.

As clarity has returned after the Budget, agents are already reporting that previously stalled transactions are progressing and new enquiries are beginning to pick up even in these three weeks or so since the Budget announcement, laying the groundwork for a busier 2026.

Renters’ Rights Act reshapes the rental landscape

The major structural change for the lettings sector in 2025 has been – at long last – the passing of the Renters’ Rights Act, described as the most significant shake-up of England’s private rented sector in a generation.

The Act abolishes Section 21 “no fault” evictions, ends fixed-term assured shorthold tenancies and moves the sector to periodic assured tenancies, with implementation beginning from May 2026. It tightens rules on rent increases, bans bidding wars that push rents above asking price and strengthens protections against discrimination, all whilst preserving new possession grounds to ensure landlords can still regain their properties in reasonable circumstances – for example, to live in themselves or to sell.

It has caused much handwringing and gnashing of teeth, with landlords feeling a deep sense of uncertainty and insecurity – but despite some challenges we will inevitably face during the phasing in period, there is opportunity.

For tenants, it should mean greater security and more predictable rent rises, making it easier to put down roots and challenge poor conditions – something that as an agency we support.

For landlords, it does raise the bar on compliance and management standards at a time when they are adjusting to higher taxation on rental income and other regulatory changes, prompting some to reassess portfolio size and strategy.

Nevertheless, there are many good landlords out there who want to provide the best quality housing at fair rents, who have felt undermined by rogue agents and bad landlords for years. Many actually see this as a chance to level the playing field.

Combined with the ongoing shortage of rental stock, with new build housing well behind government targets, these reforms are likely to keep the lettings market tight.

Nationally, rents increased by 5% over the 12 months to October 2025 – the latest figures available from the Office for National Statistics (ONS); in Swindon this was a touch higher, with ONS data showing 5.5% increase. We expect to see solid rental growth and low void periods in 2026, even if the pace that rents increase moderates.

Interest rates, inflation and buyer confidence

We thought interest rates would be cut – and they have been. Coming down to 3.75% will be a welcome relief for many homeowners on variable rate or tracker mortgages, as well as for the 1.6 million people in the UK who have fixed rates ending next year – not to mention anyone seeking a mortgage for a property they are purchasing.

Mortgage lenders are already competing with each other to drop their product rates, with some already as low as 3.55%, and we expect to see rates begin to fall below 3.5% in the next few weeks – perhaps next few hours!

Inflation is also projected to drift closer to target, possibly coming down to the 2% target by Summer. This should ease some of the cost-of-living pressure that has constrained household budgets and borrowing capacity – especially if we do see some sort of peace deal in Ukraine.

Of course, any escalation of that conflict could push inflation up again. The forces that combine to affect the housing market are vast, complex and difficult to ever fully predict.

We will not see a return to the ultra-cheap money of the pre-Truss era. Borrowing will become cheaper, but will still remain more expensive than those times, and so affordability will continue to shape what and where people can buy.

That said, a move from “rates rising” to “rates easing” is powerful in psychological terms, encouraging wouldbe movers who have been waiting on the sidelines to reenter the market and plan ahead with greater confidence.

Many commentators now see 2025 as the low point for property market activity, with gradual improvement through 2026 as financing conditions become less restrictive.

Price growth and activity in 2026–2030

Putting these threads together, most mainstream forecasters are expecting modest but positive house price growth in 2026, followed by a stronger cumulative rise over the second half of the decade.

Predictions among analysts and experts vary, but typically we see suggestions of low singledigit national growth next year, building to a total uplift of around 20% by the end of the four-year window from 2026 to 2030, assuming inflation, wages and interest rates evolve broadly as expected.

The outlook is far from uniform across the UK, however.

Prime London and other high-value areas may lag in the near term as they digest tax changes and affordability constraints; the so-called Mansion Tax on properties valued above £2 million is set to kick in, in 2028, and that may dampen the market for that sector of homes – not an insignificant number in the South East and the capital, but of course these are fewer and further between here in Swindon, Chippenham, Cirencester and generally across Wiltshire and Gloucestershire. That is not to say that we don’t see them however, and there could be some effect here, in that sector, by 2027/2028 as this new tax approaches and then kicks in.

Transaction volumes are likely to trend upwards next year as confidence and affordability improve, but the market is expected to feel busy and normal rather than frothy.

When it comes to rentals, despite the threats of a landlord exodus prompted by the Renters’ Rights Act, the structural shortage of rental properties will keep values high, especially as newbuild delivery is falling far short of stated government ambitions.

What this means for movers and landlords

For home movers, there may be a pending window of opportunity. Those looking to buy in 2026 may find they are no longer competing in the ‘buyers market’ that 2025 presented – certainly towards the end of the year.

Nevertheless, those who are looking to make a purchase in the early part of the year will still at least participate in a balanced market – with stock levels supporting the number of buyers searching for a new home.

Buyers who prepare early, by getting advice, securing agreements in principle and setting clear budgets, will be well placed to move quickly when the right property appears.

Landlords face a more complex mix of headwinds and opportunities. On one hand, higher taxation with a 2% tax coming in 2027 on taxable profits, announced in the Budget, tighter regulation by way of the Renters Rights Act implemented in phases from May 1, and the practical implications of rising costs, all makes for more careful financial planning.

On the other hand, strong local demand for rented homes, constrained supply and the prospect of gradually improving capital values mean that wellrun portfolios in the right locations (and in the hands of the right agent) should continue to deliver attractive longterm returns.

In this new phase, the focus for all participants is likely to be less about chasing rapid gains and more about navigating a steadier, more rulesbased market with clear eyes and realistic expectations.

A Final Word on Swindon

The local market is in reasonable shape and – to repeat a line that I feel I often use – ‘the fundamentals here remain strong’.

What do I mean by that? I mean that we have a vibrant community that continues to offer people many good reasons to wish to live here, with obvious job creation and investment in local infrastructure as well as housing, and regular cultural events that bring us together as a community.

As I reflect on 2025, of course I would comment that the property market we work in has been tough – but then, so have economic conditions in general.

Nevertheless, for homeowners who worry about the inherent value of their bricks and mortar, the truth is that round here, that is as safe as houses. We may have dropped 1.6% over 12 months, but I expect we will see that correct itself in short order as we head through the first quarter of 2026 – albeit, we may not see huge increases beyond that by the end of 2026.

If you would like to get an idea of your home’s value, you can always feel free to ask us to have a look. You do not have to have any thoughts of selling – we are happy to offer advice. We are your neighbours, and it is our field of expertise – so take advantage of us!

2025 has been a challenge. 2026? Truthfully, we can’t wait to find out.

Swindon Property Market 2026: Frequently Asked Questions

1. Are house prices in Swindon expected to rise in 2026?

Most forecasters expect modest but positive price growth in 2026 nationally, with a stronger uplift anticipated between 2028 and 2030. Demand is high and properties should hold value and recover once mortgage rates ease – particularly with so many new jobs on the cards to be created locally.

2. Is 2026 a good time to buy a property in Swindon?

Potentially, yes. Borrowing costs are forecast to ease, and while competition is expected to pick up, early 2026 may still offer a relatively balanced market. Buyers who prepare early with agreements in principle and clear budgets will be in the best position when properties come up for sale.

3. What does the Renters’ Rights Act mean for landlords?

The Act removes Section 21, ends fixed tenancies with all tenancies to become periodic, tightens rent increase rules, and more. While it has caused anxiety, good landlords who already run high-standard portfolios should fare well, especially as demand for rentals in Swindon continues to exceed supply.

4. Will rents continue to rise in Swindon?

Yes, though perhaps at a more moderate pace. Swindon has seen rental values rise 5.5% in the past year, 10% higher than the national average. With limited stock and new-build delivery falling short of local need, rental growth and low void periods are likely to continue into 2026.

5. What impact will falling interest rates have on the market?

Lower interest rates should gradually improve affordability, boost buyer confidence, and encourage previously hesitant movers back into the market. Even without a return to “cheap money”, the psychological difference between rates rising and rates easing is expected to spur renewed activity.

6. Is the Swindon market still a safe place to invest?

Yes but it depends on your objectives. Despite a tough 2025, Swindon’s fundamentals remain very strong: a vibrant community, new job creation, investment in local amenities, and a sustained demand for homes. These are exactly the conditions that support long-term stability in both sales and rentals, but capital growth itself could be subdued until 2027/2028.

7. Should I get my home valued even if I’m not thinking of selling?

Absolutely. Understanding your home’s value is useful for financial planning and gives you a clearer picture of your position in the market. You’re under no obligation to sell. As local agents and neighbours, we’re always happy to advise.