Inflation Rises for First Time in 5 Months: Will it Affect My House Move in Swindon?

At the same time, however, the Rightmove House Price Index reported the largest January rise in average asking prices since the index began 25 years ago. 2.8%!

In many ways this is being read as signalling renewed economic confidence.

So what does this mean for your house move in Swindon? Is one right and one wrong? Does one bit of news matter more, and the other less. If you are selling your home?

Overall, there is plenty of reason to feel confident about moving home.

Here is a breakdown of the key developments and what they mean for the weeks and months ahead.

Understanding December’s inflation rise

Before sounding any alarm bells, it is worth understanding what drove December’s inflation uptick. Not only that, but to note that it had been expected – albeit the expectation was to see 3.3%, and it rose to 3.4.

The increase was largely attributed to specific sectors rather than broad price pressures across the whole economy, with tobacco duty changes and higher December air fares playing a big part in the rise.

Economists often describe these as largely “oneoff” or timelimited factors: temporary bumps in certain industries or sectors, rather than clear evidence of a full reversal in the broader disinflation trend.

The bigger picture on inflation

Despite December’s surprise, the wider view among many forecasters is that inflation is still likely to move closer to the Bank of England’s 2% target over the course of 2026. That matters.

The exact pace and timing are uncertain, and recent data is a reminder that the path downwards will not always be smooth. In fact, we shouldn’t expect it to be.

For homeowners and movers, it is the broader trend which matters more than any single monthly figure. It is the mediumterm outlook after all that will guide interest rate decisions and, in turn, mortgage pricing.

What this could mean for interest rates

With inflation ticking up slightly, the February interest rate decision has become more finely balanced. It makes it more likely that the Bank of England will hold rates steady at that meeting, as policymakers will want clearer evidence that inflation is firmly under control before making cuts.

Here is how we expect this to affect Swindon homeowners and buyers:

• For those on variable and tracker mortgages: Payments are likely to stay broadly where they are in the near term. However, if inflation resumes its downward trend later in the year, further rate cuts are still expected in 2026 and these sorts of mortgages track the base rate – tracker rates directly, variable rates less so, but broadly speaking.
• For those seeking fixedrate mortgages: Lenders have been competing in recent weeks to bring their product rates down and win customers. This latest inflation news may cause fixedrate reductions to level off in the short term, but there remain some appealing products for buyers and those remortgaging.

The property market remains resilient

Some genuinely encouraging news is that the property market continues to show real resilience. Rightmove’s latest index shows January produced the largest jump in average asking prices for any January since the measure began, suggesting that buyer confidence and demand have picked up again.

For homeowners in general, it will come as welcome relief. It is well known that London’s market has taken a downturn in recent months – at odds with the rest of the country, overall, but perhaps a historic correction of sorts, after the steep rises seen in London over previous years. But it is this news that tends to dominate the news cycle headlines.

As it happens, the Swindon market fared better last year – more in line with the robust market dynamic that saw the Midlands and the North of England perform well – in terms of gently rising property values and high transaction numbers over the course of the year.

The average property value in Swindon currently is, in fact, 1% higher than it was 12 months ago, according to Rightmove’s data. The average property here is now just under £340,000.

Well-presented, well-priced homes are attracting strong interest.

For buyers, rising prices never feel ideal, but on the other hand they do indicate a healthy, functioning market rather than a stagnant or falling one.

Also, for any buyers who have been watching, waiting for the bottom of the market, this might be a sign that things are not likely to fall further.

A 1% rise in a year is steady enough – but certainly not exciting; but 2.8% in a single month, nationally, is a hefty leap – especially given the drops seen in places like London, which in some areas have lost over 15% of value in the same period.

With this sense of general, national confidence starting to return, then, I suspect we will see our local pattern continue to tick upwards. Nothing in life is guaranteed! But our local market here in Wiltshire has run with the general market sentiment last year on a regional level, and there is no reason to think it shouldn’t now continue to tick up, as national sentiment improves.

Why the first half of 2026 represents a positive window of opportunity

Taking all of this together, the first half of 2026 looks set to be a favourable time to make your move in Swindon.

Demand for quality homes here often outstrips the supply coming to market.

Mortgage rates, while not guaranteed to fall further immediately, are generally far more manageable than they were 12–18 months ago, bringing some previously pricedout buyers back into the market.

If you are selling, you are doing so against a backdrop of gently rising asking prices here in Swindon. If you are buying, moving sooner rather than later may mean getting in ahead of any further price growth should the current momentum continue.

A balanced approach to moving in 2026

A rise in inflation, even a relatively modest one driven by specific categories, is not ideal news and does add a note of caution to the nearterm outlook.

At best, it may delay the interest rate cuts that many were hoping to see early this year, and there is no guarantee about the speed or scale of future reductions.

However, context is crucial. The overall picture still looks positive – by comparison to the way things looked in 2025, for example. Inflation is expected by many to ease over time, borrowing costs have reduced, and when it comes to the property market, we see it demonstrating renewed strength.

For those considering a move in Swindon in 2026, it is a positive moment for sellers and buyers alike.

As always, speaking with a professional adviser is the best way to understand how these trends apply to your specific budget and plans.

If you are thinking about selling or buying in Swindon this year, we would be delighted to talk you through the local market, help you plan your move and support you in finding your new home, or securing a buyer for your own.