Pre-Budget Outlook 2025: 7 Measures Swindon Homeowners Should Watch For

Here in Swindon and across Wiltshire, homeowners, landlords and would-be buyers are asking the question: how is the Budget going to affect me?

Rather than speculate on every possible measure that could come through in next week’s Budget announcement, we are focussing on what we specialise in: property.

To that end, we have trawled the commentaries and stayed glued to the analyses, in order to pick out the potential key issues we think could be most likely to affect the local housing market here in Swindon.

So here it is: the House Group pre-Budget guide, exploring the current economic backdrop and the political atmosphere influencing it, and what we have selected as the top seven potential measures that Swindon property owners should watch closely for next Wednesday.

The Economic Backdrop

The economic context shaping this year’s Autumn Budget is a challenging one to say the very least. Here are some headlines and summaries:

Growth: Weak

GDP has risen just 0.1% in the last quarter, with a monthly contraction in July pulling it down to a near-flatline.

Employment: Falling

Unemployment sits at 4.8%, its highest level since 2021, and with business confidence fragile, hiring intentions have slowed – especially following last year’s National Insurance increases for employers.

Inflation: Stubborn, But Falling at Last

Inflation had hovered at 3.8% since July through to September, but has dropped to 3.6% in October – despite soaring food prices countering falling energy prices.

This has been a rare piece of good news for the Chancellor as she prepares to deliver her Autumn Budget, with inflation never reaching that 4% level again this year that markets had predicted. Nevertheless, in overall terms, it still remains stubbornly higher than the Bank of England’s target. And stubborn inflation means stubborn interest rates.

Interest Rates: Stuck at 4%

The Bank of England held the base rate at 4% by the narrowest of margins when the MPC last met earlier this month (5 voting to hold, 4 voting to cut to 3.75%).

Hopes of a pre-Christmas rate cut had risen, after an impromptu speech given by the Chancellor ahead of the Budget which all but promised income tax increases – something that is typically disinflationary. That probability faded slightly after she reversed course on that only days later.

It has been this sort of political inconsistency that has fed market uncertainty, and this has not been the only U-Turn we have seen in recent days and weeks. Lenders have remained conservative – albeit, a Reuters poll of market analysts in the week following the MPC meeting revealed a consensus view: the base rate will be cut in December, and then cut again during the first quarter of 2026, likely bringing the base rate down to 3.5% before the Spring market kicks off (see article here).

This will have become even more likely after seeing inflation dip to 3.6% in October.

We may even see this reflected in mortgage rates sooner than December’s MPC meeting. For the time being however, the market is left facing:

• Standard Variable Rates around or above 7%
• Fixed rates around 5%
• Buyers pausing or reassessing affordability

Gilt Yields: Falling, But Still Volatile

Ten-year gilt yields have dipped, which is usually a sign that mortgage pricing could ease. Nevertheless, volatility persists, and just one surprise announcement next week could push rates in either direction. At the moment, this is too tricky to call with any real certainty.

Swindon Property Market Snapshot: Prices Remain Level

Despite alarming headlines over the course of the past few months, it is important to note that these are typically driven by national and often London-centric data.

By contrast, the picture here in Swindon has been occasionally more positive, and never very negative. ONS data shows us that property values have more or less flatlined over the course of 12 months (from September 2024 to September 2025, at least, noting that there is always a couple of months’ lag when it comes to ONS reporting).

In the meantime, rents are up, by 5.7% annually, roughly in line with the 5.9% increase seen in the South West as a region.

Seven Key Budget Measures Swindon Homeowners and Landlords Should Look Out For

As mentioned, we shall leave it to others to pass comment on what might come out of the Budget as a whole. Our focus is on the policy areas and Budget measures that could be tweaked or introduced next week which would affect property ownership, taxation and transaction levels here in Swindon – things that might affect you as a client of ours or simply as a neighbour and fellow denizen.

Whilst specifics are most definitely uncertain, here are our own top picks: seven areas we have identified where potential changes could affect the shape of the property market here in Swindon:

1. Stamp Duty Reform

Stamp duty is becoming more widely expected to feature in the Autumn Budget 2025.

Options reportedly under consideration include:

• Abolishing stamp duty altogether, something which may have become more likely since being floated as a proposal by opposition leader Kemi Badenoch
• Replacing SDLT with an annual property tax on higher-value homes, to soften the blow to the Treasury
• Phasing SDLT payments instead of demanding as a one-off charge, easing the road for buyers
• Switching taxation from buyers to sellers: still a transactional tax, but payable by sellers from sale proceeds

2. Council Tax Rebanding

Council tax bands are still based on 1991 property values. Most people begrudgingly accept that reform in this regard is overdue, and it looks as if the 2025 Autumn Budget may finally revise those bands, reassessing properties in the process and placing many extended and altered properties into higher-value categories.

Of course, anyone caught out unfavourably isn’t going to love this at all – but, if we admit it, being over a third of a century later we realise it is bound to happen sooner than later.

What are the implications for Swindon?

• Larger homes could face notable council tax increases
• Second homes and short-let properties could be targeted
• Owners of mid-market semi-detached and detached homes should watch closely, especially if their properties have been extended since the early 90s.

3. Capital Gains Tax on Main Residences

Though this feels less likely, speculation has begun to swirl that a tax on capital gains on primary residences could be introduced.

The most widely cited model suggests that:

• Gains on properties valued below £1.5m would remain exempt
• Gains above £1.5m could potentially be taxed

£1.5m is above typical property values in Swindon – our average property price sits at £261,000, again according to ONS figures.

Still, it is not unheard of to find a property priced in excess of £1.5m, especially when it comes to larger properties with a bit of acreage in neighbouring villages and more rural parts of Wiltshire; more especially still if they benefit from a picturesque setting or a glorious view.

Also, however, given the tendency for long-term property price growth, more homes could fall into this scope over time.

For the time being this is one to watch, but perhaps not to panic about.

4. Income Tax, National Insurance and VAT

If the Chancellor avoids direct income tax rises, the alternative is a package of “stealth taxes”, through means such as:

• Freezing income tax thresholds (fiscal drag)
• Increasing National Insurance
• Raising VAT, pushing up the cost of consumer goods and services

One major concern for landlords is the ongoing discussion around National Insurance on rental income.

If introduced:

• Around 360,000 landlords could be affected
• Many landlords could see yields fall by up to 10%

This is one of the more likely changes that local landlords should look out for in next week’s Budget announcement.

And if it does get announced, local first-time buyers should be on the lookout too. It could signal a raft of lower-value ex-rental properties hitting the market for sale as landlords choose to exit.

5. Inheritance Tax and Wealth-Based Property Taxes

With a sizable fiscal gap to fill, the Government may consider:

• Lowering inheritance tax thresholds
• Increasing IHT rates
• Introducing new wealth-based levies, especially on property

Higher-value homes could be directly affected if thresholds tighten.

6. Landlord Regulation and Renters’ Rights

Even without Budget changes, the regulatory environment for landlords is tightening. The Budget may reinforce or expand:

• Compliance requirements linked to the Renters’ Rights Act
• Reporting rules tied to Making Tax Digital
• Incentives for green upgrades, such as insulation or heat-pump support
• Pressure on the PRS as part of broader reforms

Rental margins are already squeezed; further regulation, particularly on top of rising costs, may drive more landlords to exit the sector – but incentives to make green improvements could be offered as a means to encourage wavering landlords to remain in the market.

7. A Mortgage Market “Sweetener”

To support first-time buyers, the Chancellor may revisit affordability and mortgage schemes.

Possible measures include:

• Expansion or reintroduction of mortgage guarantees and help to buy type incentives
• Adjustments to affordability tests
• Support for low-deposit mortgages
• Incentives aimed at younger buyers

For a property market like ours in Swindon, where homes are attractive to first-time buyers, commuters and re-locators due to their relative affordability here compared to other parts, this could help kickstart greater activity, particularly at entry level.

What Can We Expect?

Beyond speculation, the one certainty we seem to have is uncertainty itself.

Analysts are divided, insiders disagree, and political fluctuations have made forecasting unusually difficult.

Some experts really do expect sweeping tax reforms, with a Telegraph article last week suggesting as many as 100 tax rises are being considered.

At the same time, others predict a more cautious Budget, with the Chancellor deferring difficult choices until later in the parliamentary cycle, given the intense pressure and scrutiny both she and the Labour government find themselves under.

Final Thoughts

Whatever the Chancellor announces, we will be here to analyse and explain the implications for homeowners, landlords and property purchasers.

Uncertainty can make the market feel tense and out of reach, but the property market here in Swindon in fact remains robust and resilient.

Look out for our post-Budget analysis next week for a clear summary of the changes and measures that matter most.

FAQ

1: Will the Autumn Budget affect house prices in Swindon?

The impact will depend on measures such as stamp duty reform, mortgage support and tax changes. While national forecasts remain uncertain, Swindon has shown particular resilience compared to many areas.

2: Are Swindon landlords going to pay more tax?

Landlords should watch for the possible introduction of National Insurance on rental income, changes to income tax thresholds and any property-related levies. These could reduce net yields, particularly for smaller portfolios. However, green-upgrade incentives may offset some costs and help keep rental investments viable.

3: Will first-time buyers in Swindon get more support?

The Chancellor may strengthen mortgage guarantee schemes, reintroduce Help to Buy initiatives, relax affordability tests or support low-deposit products. These changes would particularly help first-time buyers in markets like Swindon, where relative affordability already attracts younger purchasers. Any buyer-focused “sweetener” could make it easier to secure a mortgage in 2026.